These 3 things need to happen to keep the Fed on a slow course to raise rates

If you want to keep the Federal Reserve on a slow course to raise interest rates to a reasonable level — let's call it 3.5% — we need to see these three things.

We are beginning to see a smarter consumer spending less, both at the store and on vacation. The former is because of the exorbitant price increases in every aisle and the latter is much more because the airlines have made traveling too unpredictable.

Now some of the causes of inflation are getting tamed. Freight is getting calmer. Parts are more available, albeit at higher prices. And while absenteeism is still a problem, it is slowly becoming less of one.

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