The Back Booth Welcome to The Back Booth, a weekend edition of The D.C. Brief. Here each Saturday, TIME’s politics newsletter will host a conversation between political professionals on the right and the left, pulling back the curtain on the conversations taking place in Washington when the tape stops rolling. Subscribe to The D.C. Brief here. The presidency is a constant push and pull between what’s urgent for Americans at home and what’s important for Americans around the globe. President Joe Biden this week kept one eye on the shuttle diplomacy playing out in Europe, as the world sought to forestall a possible Russian invasion of Ukraine, U.S. intelligence stepped up its declassification and everyone tried to figure out just what Russian President Vladimir Putin would do. The rest of Biden’s attention stayed trained on problems at home: a potential crisis on America’s northern border, a fraying understanding of masks and vaccines and a protest at his front door over guns. As the week unfolded, I chatted regularly by email with two pros who have been on the inside at such tricky moments in politics. On the left, Jonathan Kott has worked for some of the most complicated Democrats in American politics, including Anthony Weiner and Joe Manchin, and fought his party’s drift leftward, opposing Bernie Sanders’ 2020 bid for the presidency and serving as a top aide to the Senate’s unofficial Biden Whisperer, Chris Coons. Across the aisle, his Republican co-narrator is James Davis, a former communications adviser to Defense Secretaries Donald Rumsfeld and Bob Gates, and the top spokesman for the Republican convention in Tampa in 2012. He most recently worked as a senior policy and political adviser to the network of organizations broadly known as The Koch Brothers. Both are now consultants. This conversation has been lightly edited. Philip Elliott: So, despite the cheerful Valentine's Day decorations on the North Lawn this Monday, things are shaping up for a pretty dicey week. The U.S. Embassy in Kyiv has been reduced to a shell, the weekend calls between President Biden and world leaders didn't yield a breakthrough, and worries of war are sending global markets into skittish territory over a possible Russian invasion of Ukraine. The Ambassador Bridge between Windsor and Detroit is back open although protests in Ottawa continue. And the Senate still has to do its part to pass a short-term funding bill to avert shutdown on Friday. Why does Washington feel oddly calm? James Davis: It may feel calm, but there’s definitely concern in the air. The honeymoon is over for the Biden presidency. Nearly 60% of Americans disapprove of President Biden’s job performance—proof that all the stimulus checks in the world can’t buy our love. With a host of emotionally charged issues facing the Administration and a divisive election season upon us, things won’t get better for the President any time soon. Jonathan Kott: I still believe D.C. is recovering from the daily chaos of the Trump Administration and even the press corps is having a hard time adjusting to the mundane and sometimes boring nature of the current Administration. I'm re-reading the histories of Bill Clinton's first term and there seem to be some lessons here. While the Democrats lost 54 House seats and eight in the Senate in 1994, Clinton still managed to refocus by 1996 and win a second term against Dole, a one-time vice presidential nominee and three-time aspirant to the presidency itself. I'm reminded that Biden's been counted out before. Are we getting back to normal? Or are we going to be besieged by Canadian truckers for the next two years? Davis: Americans, like our Canadian neighbors, are frustrated with mandates and COVID in general and want to return normalcy. Kott: D.C. may be jumping the gun on lifting the mask mandates, but they have seen vaccination rates up and hospitalization rates down, so maybe, just maybe, they are following the science and facts. Davis: The [D.C.] Mayor’s approach is anything but science- or data-driven. According to the CDC, 72% of the city is fully vaccinated. What are the natural immunity numbers? Paragon Health Institute’s public health expert, Dr. Joel Zinberg, wrote a terrific piece on this saying that science shows the vaccine mandates have minimal positive health impact. Businesses on the other hand, are already being crushed. I dined at Wok and Roll in Chinatown recently. There were two tables there during lunch! We’ve seen many old favorites close their doors for good. The Washingtonian keeps a running list but even it seems like it may not be up to date. Still, wartime feels not urgent. Davis: We don’t want, nor can we afford another war. But we’re dancing dangerously close to one. As my former boss, Secretary of Defense Robert Gates, has noted, Joe Biden has been wrong on “nearly every major foreign policy and national security issue over the past four decades.” Let’s hope the President can break his streak. Speaking of 40 years, we’re experiencing record high inflation that hasn’t been seen in 40 years! The nonprofit Independent Women’s Forum publishes a helpful monthly chart that breaks down price changes on common household expenses. Thankfully, Sens. Joe Manchin and Kyrsten Sinema have held the line against Build Back Better, a partisan spending bill that would further fuel inflation. I’d love to see lawmakers from both parties come together to address Washington’s wasteful spending by reforming the budgeting process. Kott: I think there is some belief that a bipartisan wave is taking over the Senate and Members have confidence that they will find reasonable solutions without actually needing to walk right up to a cliff. So, it’s Tuesday and the President is set to speak from the East Room at 3:30 p.m., Ukrainian agencies are hit by a cyber attack and Moscow seems to be sending contradictory signals to everyone. If you're a policymaker right now, who are you calling? Davis: In moments like this, you’re not only looking for non-public information. You need to understand context, precedent and the range of options available to the decision-makers. While I think most would likely go to National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan, State, or the CIA leadership, they’re unlikely to get more than the same canned answers that everyone else will get. So, if it were me, I would call reliable experts who could give me a line on their thinking, a list of smart questions to ask, and a list of others with local knowledge to ask those questions. I’d also reach out to the reporter on the ground that I have the best relationships with. Reporters are looking for accurate information but can also be a source of good intel. Kott: I completely agree with James that getting experts with a career background in this region are the right people to begin reaching out to. And to some extent, reporters on the ground. But in a crisis moment like that you need to go to Jake Sullivan, State Department Chief of Staff Jon Finer and National Security Council Chief of Staff Yohannes Abraham. You need real-time intelligence that only they will have. I know they are well respected on the Hill and thought of as serious people. All eyes are now turning to this weekend’s Munich Security Conference, the annual sleep-away camp for foreign policy nerds. How do you have an MSC with Ukraine on edge? Davis: A significant number of the people attending the Munich Security Forum played a role in shaping American and NATO policy regarding Russia and NATO expansion over the last 30 years. While experience is invaluable, I would hope there is an honest conversation about whether past policies have helped lead us to the current situation around Ukraine. What have we learned and what adjustments can we make going forward? What's keeping you up at night as you look at the week-ahead? Davis: The lack of civility and human decency that seems to dominate every facet of our time. Cancel culture. Demonization. Blind tribalism. As a country, we have forgotten how to disagree with people while maintaining respect for them. Unfortunately, this approach does very little to change minds or solve problems. Perhaps there is some solace in the fact that the Senate managed to pass the continuing resolution Thursday to keep the U.S. government open after all. But with President Biden saying on Friday afternoon that he’s “convinced” Putin has decided to invade Ukraine, it should be a tense weekend. Thank you both for your time. | 
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