| | | | BY PHILIP ELLIOTT
Senior Correspondent, TIME | Barack Obama has really enjoyed his post-presidency. The jaunts to private islands. The dinner with Bruce Springsteen and Steven Spielberg in Barcelona. The memoirs; the second volume is still a work in progress. Even jury duty. He's watching his daughters become fully formed adults out of the glare of his halo. Michelle Obama has her own projects, such as a book about her fashion choices due out next week. The presidential library is finally coming along. Beyond a few rallying speeches in presidential election years, Obama appeared to have put his political days very much behind him. | So it's easy to understand why Obama observers were caught a little on their heels this summer when he came off the bench to involve himself in Prop 50, a state ballot measure intended to rig California's congressional map to the benefit of Democrats. Californians are scheduled to vote on it on Nov. 4. Long a critic of partisan gerrymandering, Obama found a new position after President Donald Trump began steering Texas to a mid-decade do-over of U.S. House maps, which are normally done only in the wake of a new U.S. Census. Trump and Texas Republicans were nakedly political in their effort to eliminate seats occupied by Democrats in order to give the GOP a better shot at holding the majority after next year's elections. | "There is a broader principle at stake that has to do with whether or not our democracy can be manipulated by those who are already in power," Obama said during a surprise pop-in with Prop 50 volunteers last week over Zoom. | | It echoed Obama's comments in August that signaled he was fine being branded a flip-flopper: "I want to see as a long-term goal that we do not have political gerrymandering in America. That would be my preference," he said. But the partisan moves in Texas deserved an equally political response. | Obama is well aware all of his past opposition to partisan gerrymandering is out there, but has told friends he can't worry about being accused of hypocrisy when so much is at stake, according to a person familiar with his thinking. | California actually has one of the better—and consistent—non-partisan systems for creating fair political maps based on the results of the U.S. Census conducted at the top of each decade. In the face of Texas' bold effort to erase five Democratic districts, California Gov. Gavin Newsom devised a plan to repeal that part of the law—approved by voters in 2008 and 2010—and allow the Democratic-led state legislature to divvy up power. Obama was quick to contact Newsom about how he could be helpful in making sure Prop 50 passed. | Obama, out of power now for more than eight years, understands the force of his star appeal amid a bleak landscape for Democrats. There really is no other figure in the party who can mobilize voters like he can. Not Bill Clinton. Not Hillary Clinton. Not Joe Biden. Not Kamala Harris. Only Michelle Obama matches his popularity in the party. While the former First Lady is no fan of where the country finds itself, she is sparing herself most of the unpleasantness of winner-takes-all politics. So until the party picks its next presidential nominee—still at least 18 months away—there is no real leader of the Democratic Party. | Hence, Barack Obama cut the ads for Prop 50, plus campaign commercials for Democratic gubernatorial nominees in Virginia and New Jersey, which will also vote next Tuesday. He is due to hit the trail with both candidates for Governor this weekend. He has also conferred with the likely next Mayor of New York ahead of next week's election. And he is ready to chat with plenty of folks looking at making a White House run in 2028. | | Core to Obama's decision to adopt a more public stance at this moment is this: he does not think the Resistance this time is countering Trump the way it did in the first term, according to the source familiar with his thinking. While 7 million people showed up for the No Kings protest earlier this month, Democrats still do not control any meaningful power in Washington; the Supreme Court, Congress, and the White House are all proven loyal to Trump's whims. | "We can stand up to this. We can call it like we see it," Obama said recently. | If polls and Democratic consultants are to be believed, Prop 50 is coasting to victory, meaning it cost Obama little political capital to get involved. Californians generally dislike both Trump and Texas, and Prop 50 is a way to rebuke the pair. Democrats already hold 43 of the state's 52 House seats, and a mid-decade tinker could expand that majority to offset their expected loss of five in Texas by roughly the same number. | Republicans, especially outside the MAGAverse, have found mixed views of this gamesmanship. | "Texas started it. They did something terribly wrong," former California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger told CNN. "And then all of a sudden California says, 'Well, then we have to do something terribly wrong.' And then, now other states are jumping in." | Republicans cheering on Texas and other states that may follow have some compelling arguments, such as Trump carrying Nevada last year but just one of the state's four House seats is occupied by a Republican. Illinois and Massachusetts are other favorite case studies of a mismatch between voting and seats in the House. Then again, even deep-red Indiana balked at following Texas. | In California, where Trump is carrying a 55% disapproval rating, according to Civiqs polling, voters appear clear-eyed about why they are repealing a good-government law they previously endorsed. A CBS News survey taken last week found 75% of those voting to gerrymander California's maps were doing so to oppose Trump. | For his part, Obama has always been one to deal with the reality in front of him. While he campaigned in 2008 on Hope with a capital H, pragmatism is often central to his strategy. "Republicans want to steal enough seats in Congress to rig the next election and wield unchecked power for two more years," Obama said in the 30-second ad. "You can stop Republicans in their tracks."If Obama can help pull this off, he may remember that political wins are a powerful drug, and find himself ready to retake the mantle of leader of the Democrats for a period. It may even be the most proximate remedy for his party in its current meandering state. | READ THE STORY » | | | | | | | | | |
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