| | | | BY PHILIP ELLIOTT
Senior Correspondent, TIME | Don't look now, but Donald Trump is in some of the worst polling territory of his time in power. And that's saying something, as he's never been on terribly firm ground. | For most of his first term, Trump leaned heavily on his solid footing as a steward of the economy and defender of the border to offset his erratic day-to-day antics. But his support on those twin policy pillars are showing signs of weakening in a series of new polls pegged to his first 100 days back in power. In fact, they're dragging him down as he adopts more extreme policies. | All of the latest polls show Trump doing terribly on his handling of the economy. Reuters, in fact, found Trump at his lowest marks for the economy ever—just 37% approval. On immigration, Trump's polling isn't quite as dire, but he's just about completely erased his edge amid a deportation spree that's included U.S. citizens and others in the country legally. | His unfavorable numbers have been on a steady climb since he came back to the Oval Office, reaching as of Thursday 52% in a New York Times aggregate analysis. Joe Biden, Barack Obama, and George W. Bush were all faring better at this point in their terms. And Trump 2.0 takes little solace in the fact he's still doing better than Trump 1.0 was faring eight years ago at this point in the presidency. (That excludes a brutal Fox News poll, released Wednesday, that has him under his first-term numbers by a single point, but still within the margin of error.) | | In this century, no U.S. President's polling has fallen off as sharply as Trump's, either. And it's not like he had much padding there, either; he started his second term with the second-worst numbers of any President in the modern era, again only saved by his first time coming to Washington. You have to go back all the way to 1953 to find a first-time President with worse numbers. (For those who cannot tick through the White House occupant list, that would be first-time politician Dwight D. Eisenhower.) | The latest polling for The Economist and YouGov give Trump an approval rating of negative 13 points—a three-point hit from just a week ago. (At this point in his presidency, Biden was up 11 points.) | Drilling down into the latest polling from Pew, Trump is in negative territory in every single demographic group save two: Republicans and those people who voted for him. Men, women, persons of color, college educated and not—they all have net negative views of him. On exactly zero issues is he in net-positive territory. Not immigration. Not trade. Not public health. Not the economy. Not foreign policy or tax policy. | There's no single answer why voters have started to sour on Trump, but it's impossible to set aside the economy. Trump's tariff tiff with friend and foe alike has left markets rattled. His escalating trade war is giving Wall Street major buyers' remorse. His mass deportations have left employers scrambling for low-cost labor and courts jammed with cases. His gutting of government—and lurching reboots—does little to project steadiness, either. Gallup's polling, also new this week, finds the country exhibiting the worst economic confidence since 2001 when it started asking the question. | | What started as a net-12 point advantage on the economy for Trump at the start of his term three months ago has become a 12-point deficit—a massive shift marking about a quarter of the electorate, according to the Economist/ YouGov data. | It's a similar rot in the same poll's question on immigration. What started as an 11-point net positive there has since become a net-negative prospect of 5 points in that Economist/ YouGov survey. | In the new Pew data, immigration ranked as the most liked thing Trump has done so far, ranking up there with about 20% of all Americans. It's the lone area where Trump is above water, although the Fox numbers hint at trouble, with just 47% giving him good marks on that topic, and 48% disapproving. | But when asked what they like the least about his work so far, his approach to governing is equally as strong, with 22% of adults telling Pew it's their biggest criticism of time back in power. | The fading shine of Trump is far from a salve for the wound he's gashing on Washington, but it does give hope for Democrats, who have been open about their lack of strategy for pushing back on just about any of his moves undermining the rule of law, the economy, or even the government he leads. Politically independent voters—the bread and butter of elections—have been the biggest crack in Trump's coalition: in January, according to Quinnipiac polling, 46% of indie voters said they disapproved of Trump; today, that number stands at 58%. A 12-point swing with independents is the entire ballgame, and should give Republicans a reason to reconsider if Trump's halo is enough to save them when they face voters next year. | Among Republicans, there are also signs of trouble. The Fox poll asked GOP voters about their prospects for this second term, and 75% of the group said they were "encouraged" about the next four years. Good, sure. But recall that 84% of those partisans said the same when asked that question at this point during Trump's first term. | If this trend continues, there might be reason for the groundskeepers at the Capitol to ready the Speaker's suite for a new occupant, especially given Democrats' strong fundraising so far this cycle. Republicans currently have a tiny seven-seat majority in that chamber. So far, GOP lawmakers have shown deference to the belief only Trump could protect them from a loss in the next primary. These latest numbers show he may actually be piling on the pain. | READ THE STORY » | | | | |
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